FEATURED JOBS
Among the frightening scenarios facing Israel these days as the Arab Spring sputters and spurts along is the uncertainty of the Israel-Egyptian relationship, which some fear could ultimately result in Cairo tearing up its famed 1979 peace treaty with Jerusalem.
Only yesterday (Thursday) the important natural gas pipeline from Egypt to Israel was purposely exploded by anti-Israel radicals for the seventh time since February (when Egypt’s revolution was in its initial days. See more at: http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/egypt-s-natural-gas-pipeline-to-israel-jordan-struck-by-double-explosion?category=%2F
).
This all raises fears that the Cold Peace between the neighbors will become a Cold War.
In truth, it’s been that way for a while. Yet holding the formal ties together – prompted by the U.S. “buying the peace” in 1979 with billions in military aid each year to both countries – have been long-time Egyptian leaders Hosni Mubarak and intelligence boss Omar Suleiman. The first is now arrested and on trial, the second out of favor (although I imagine he’s being protected from prosecution by Egypt’s new army bosses).
So what will happen? On Wednesday I met Lt. Col. (Res.) Ronnie Porat for coffee. He’s currently the Jewish National Fund Israel Emissary for Southern and Florida zones. Prior to that he served for a number of years in the Israel Defense Forces intelligence and operations branch. As his bio says, he was “conducting research on Egyptian-Israeli military history.” At various points, he worked in Israel’s embassy in Amman, Jordan and in Israel’s embassy in Cairo.
He stressed that he was not speaking on behalf of JNF, but as a private individual. And he sees a much brighter picture than many. I think it’s too early to tell, and told him that.
“The Arab Spring will be bringing, in the long run, positive things to Israel and Egypt,” he said without equivocation, noting Israeli Jewish society still suffers from the “Holocaust syndrome” of fear, which as a son of Holocaust survivors he understands but thinks has created far too much angst.
With Egypt, for example, he correctly noted that it’s not in the interest of that country’s next rulers—likely after the scheduled March 2012 presidential elections to form a coalition with former army/intelligence folks, Moslem Brotherhood representatives and secular democrats – to have tensions with Israel.
In addition to the 1979 peace treaty limiting Egyptian military forces in the Sinai Desert into three zones, he noted that tankers passing through the Suez Canal (whose closure prompted wars with Israel in 1956 and 1967) bring Egypt $5 billion a year.
With a once $12 billion a year and now tottering tourist industry (for obvious reasons), that Suez revenue is even more important.
“The main problem that should be addressed immediately by the Egyptian—current and future—regime is the internal economic one,” he said. “If the current peaceful situation will be changed into a sort of a tension between the two countries, it will badly affect the tourism, as well as the naval traffic through the Suez Canal. So it’s definitely in Egypt’s interest to maintain the peaceful—even if it described as cold peace—status quo.”
Then he added, “It looks like that even if the Moslem Brotherhood will be an influential component in the future Egyptian local politics, they will definitely need to consider the facts above.”
I noted that while I agreed with much of what he said, his is the rosiest scenario.
I’m concerned that Egypt’s rulers will let off popular steam by allowing a loser patrolling of the border with Gaza, allowing in even more weapons. He disagreed saying, “That’s already happening.”
Indeed, today there are reports that Israel will equip its El Al planes with anti-missile systems as rockets are said to be coming into Gaza from Libya (and guess where they have to cross first – yep, Egypt). (Read more at: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-israel-to-equip-airliners-with-anti-missile-system-as-libyan-arms-reach-gaza-1.395057 .)
And, I added, it could get worse. Egypt’s rulers could use tensions in Gaza to keep Israel off balance, which would raise the popularity of those rulers with the infamous “Arab street,” which could distract from economic woes at home.
I certainly hope I’m wrong.
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