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October 10, 2008
Taking The Helm
Meet Israel’s Likely Next Prime Minister
Neil Rubin
Editor
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TzippyLivni will not serve homemade strudel to top advisers cramming into her tiny apartment kitchen, as did Golda Meir. A U.S. president will not need to teach her about appropriate formal attire, as Bill Clinton did for Yitzhak Rabin.
She will not be labeled a beloved, unpredictable and authoritarian older relative, as was Ariel Sharon. Nor will she attain the living prophet status of David Ben-Gurion.
But the scion of the hard-right Zionist Revisionist elite — raised on the “Greater Israel” philosophy, a former Mossad agent and an attorney with a self-professed preference for blue jeans and sneakers — is poised to become Israel’s prime minister by month’s end.
Having entered the Knesset less than a decade ago, she is largely unknown to most American Jews.
Who is Tzippy Livni and what should we know about the Jewish state’s likely next leader?
For starters, she must secure the job. That will happen by forging a government supported by at least 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
Most observers believe she will keep the current coalition intact by tossing in the inducements so common in the Middle East bazaar of Israeli coalition-building. This will include funding schools of Shas (the Sephardic Orthodox party) and sacking Justice Minister Daniel Friedmann (to please a Labor Party upset with his assault on the powers of a Supreme Court labeled too activist).
When that’s done, Tzippy Livni will be named prime minister by a Knesset vote. In large part, she will take the title as somewhat the last politician standing.
First, Ariel Sharon fell to a coma-inducing stroke in early 2006. Then, now-former Labor leader Amir Peretz’s reputation was sullied by his performance as defense minister in the Second Lebanon War that summer. Ditto with then-military Chief of Staff Dan Halutz (who dumped his stocks just before he sent the troops into battle). In addition to his heavily criticized leadership during that war, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in August announced he would resign from the top job as soon as a new Kadima leader was selected in the Sept. 17 primary. He had to do so in the face of multiple corruption investigations against him. Others, too, are alleged to have, or admitted to, inappropriate behavior — i.e. Kadima’s Chaim Ramon and Tzachi Hanegbi.
So after defeating main rival Shaul Mofaz in a party primary, Mrs. Livni became the centrist group’s leader.
“She’s been the beneficiary of the winnowing process,” explained Michael Oren, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem-based Shalem Center and author of the best-selling “Power, Faith And Fantasy: America In The Middle East 1776 to the Present.”
“With the exception of Mofaz, she’s the last person standing,” he said. “You have to give her credit for sticking it out, but on the other hand she’s had a lot of luck.”
Luck and no doubt some skill brought her to Israeli President Shimon Peres’ house Sept. 22, the day on which the country’s elder statesman tapped her to form a government. As dictated by Israeli law, she was given 42 days.
Her likely coalition is the existing one of Kadima (29), Labor (19), Shas (12) and the new Pensioners Party (seven) for a total of 67 seats.
Labor and the Pensioners — both fearing heavy losses were new elections held soon — are a sure bet. If Shas backs out, Mrs. Livni can turn to the Ashkenazic Haredi party Agudat Yisrael (six) and the left-wing Meretz (five), for the majority of 66.
Still, the existing coalition should be her goal, Dr. Oren said.
“I’d keep it as centrist as possible — no Meretz or rightist parties — and do that for a year,” he said. “Let Israelis see her as prime minister and get used to that. The worst thing she can do is embark on rushing on with a peace process that will tear Israeli society apart. There’s an old Arab saying, ‘Haste is from the devil.’”
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that earlier this week Mrs. Livni told French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner that she does not share Mr. Olmert’s desire to rapidly push the peace process forward.
“I do not believe,” she told the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz, “in far-reaching proposals and an attempt to expedite matters, especially in light of the political situation.”
Indeed, such leaps are unlikely until new elections, which must occur by early 2010. At present, the Likud Party under Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu is far ahead in the polls.
“With Bibi waiting in the wings and champing at the bit to become prime minister, it’s unlikely she can accomplish anything in the peace negotiations,” said Paul Scham, executive director of the University of Maryland’s Gildenhorn Institute for Israel Studies.
“She’ll be a consensus prime minister,” Dr. Scham added. “Sharon was a force of nature. He did whatever he wanted to do. She will not be like that.”
Indeed, Mrs. Livni’s most important task is keeping people across the sea in Washington, D.C., according to Ariel I. Roth, associate director of the Johns Hopkins University’s graduate Certificate Program in National Securities Studies.
“The national interests of the U.S. at this point require a close relationship with Israel; that would be true whether American Jews supported Israel or not, which is icing on the cake,” Dr. Roth said. “The important thing is this makes the third in a string of Israeli prime ministers that share the same strategy in which it’s beneficial for Israel to separate from the Palestinians.”
Mrs. Livni’s political journey from hard right to center typical of those who followed her quasi-mentor Ariel Sharon into Kadima.
She grew up amongst the elite crowd of Menachem Begin’s Herut Party, which eventually became the center of the Likud bloc. Its ideology was one of Yisrael Shlemah, or Greater Israel.
While stocked with secular Ashkenazis, the group was ardently nationalist on territory and saw the state as the only haven for Jewish refugees and culture.
So giving up even an inch of sacred Jewish land — let alone the biblical cradle of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and later by extension the Golan Heights and the Gaza Strip — was simply an abomination.
Yet Mrs. Livni’s world vision began changing about six years ago as Mr. Sharon started speaking about the demographic threat posed by ruling millions of non-Jewish Palestinians.
Suddenly — and the numbers are hotly debated — it seemed that within a decade or so Israeli Jews would be a ruling minority. That stoked the embers of the anti-occupation crowd as well as noxious apartheid comparisons.
As the logic went, the Palestinians no longer needed to either demand the “right of return” to ancestral homes or a Palestinian state. That’s because within a short period, Israeli democracy would be forced to enact its “one person, one vote” pledge — bringing a Palestinian majority to the Knesset — or risk serious and damaging international isolation.
Mr. Sharon, unable to bring most Likud stalwarts along, pulled out of the right-of-center Likud to form Kadima. The likes of Mrs. Livni and Mr. Olmert came along, being joined by Mr. Peres, the titan of the Labor Party. But then Mr. Sharon fell ill. Mr. Olmert took over and led the party to an early 2006 election victory.
Enter Mrs. Livni, who picks up an array of challenges that would seemingly overwhelm the most seasoned politician.
Take a quick survey of what awaits her:
Militarily: There is a low-scale war with the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, ongoing anti-terrorist military operations in the West Bank and the constant fear of another flare-up from the north, courtesy of the Lebanese Hezbollah;
Diplomatically: There are serious negotiations between Israel and Syria, under the auspices of Turkey. The Israeli-Palestinian talks are said to be going well, with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice pressing for progress as the Bush administration enters its final three months. Yet a new U.S. administration is coming, meaning a new retinue of players must re-establish their credentials (despite the likelihood of many of them being old hands on the region’s conflicts);
Iran: There is planning for a preemptive raid on Iranian nuclear installations, which must gain U.S. approval to fly over Iraqi air space. Still, even if that comes and the plan is put into action, the results could include massive volleys of Hezbollah rockets on northern Israel, heightened West Bank rioting, more Gaza missiles and the tottering of governments in Egypt and Jordan;
Domestic Strife: In Israel, even moving pieces of a generator down a highway on a Friday evening can threaten a government, due to violating Orthodox sensibilities. Likewise, a host of other secular-religious tensions await, including military service, extra shekels for large Orthodox families, religious school funding and even the opening of shopping centers on Shabbat;
Economically: The mounting global economic crisis could hit Israel hard, starting with the devalued U.S. dollar — Israel still receives a very healthy chunk of annual U.S. military and economic aid. Meanwhile, venture capitalists are unlikely to take huge risks on Israel’s attractive start-up ventures, an already disturbing level of poverty could increase with rising unemployment and the lucrative tourism industry is unlikely to set records anytime soon.
Simply put, is Mrs. Livni prepared to meet such challenges?
Those who have met her say yes. “She is smart, she is passionate and she is strong,” said Robert O. Freedman, visiting professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University and Baltimore Hebrew University’s Peggy Meyerhoff Pearlstone Professor Emeritus of Political Science.
In January 2002, he was the U.S. representative at a European-sponsored Israeli-Palestinian dialogue conference near Frankfurt, Germany. Mr. Sharon had sent Mrs. Livni to lead the Jewish state’s delegation.
“I observed her for three days,” Dr. Freedman said of the speeches and informal corridor chats taking place. “I spoke to her privately and she gave me the impression even then that she was not a rock-hard ideologue, but had flexibility.”
Nor is the Israeli leader without seasoning, noted Dr. Roth.
“The Israeli political scene is hardball on steroids, and if she’s gotten to the top, that’s a measure of her preparedness,” he said. “She’s been foreign minister during a difficult time both in foreign and domestic challenges.”
For their part, American Jews are likely to welcome Israel’s new leader, as they would with virtually anyone in that position.
“Her views are in the center of the community,” said Dr. Scham. “She will be opposed by the Mort Kleins [of the Zionist Organization of America] and the ideological right. But she will be a sort of steady, non-partisan, non-bombastic person. So I think American Jews will take to her as someone who is businesslike.”
That said, American Jews should press Mrs. Livni and her representatives on key questions, Dr. Oren said.
“What are her positions on the territorial issues? Does she plan to give back East Jerusalem, and if so, how much?” he asked. “Where is she on the Palestinian refugees return demand? That had always been a red line in Israeli politics, but recently Olmert has been giving different signals on that. What about the Golan Heights? Does she feel Israel needs to give it up? How will she react to the Iranian nuclear threat?”
They also should know, he added, that in her brief time in the national spotlight, Mrs. Livni has made mistakes.
As the 2006 Second Lebanon War wound down, Foreign Minister Livni seemed quick to accede to international demands that Israelis accept U.N. Resolution 1701, which in part allows for an expanded international monitoring force on the northern side of the Israeli-Lebanese border.
“Critics said, and they were proven right, that it was not in Israel’s interest,” Dr. Oren said. “They said it puts a European force on the Israeli border that will not prevent Hezbollah from re-arming but will prevent Israel from striking back.”
A few months later, as the political fallout mounted from what was seen as a failed military effort to break Hezbollah’s back, Mrs. Livni called for Mr. Olmert’s resignation. Yet, she did not step down herself; by continuing to serve as his foreign minister, she lent her credibility to his government.
“The criticism was she was not strong and was easily influenced and went very far to the left with the Kadima Party, making it indistinguishable from the Labor Party,” Dr. Oren said.
However, he added, she did stand up somewhat to Mr. Olmert and certainly has done so with Labor Party leader Ehud Barak. The latter openly said he preferred Mr. Mofaz as a coalition partner, derisively referring to Mrs. Livni as “Tzipporah” — the bird, or flighty one.
All that said, one cannot deny her biggest accomplishment to date in winning over the camp of Ariel Sharon.
Mrs. Livni will need all of the skills she used to do that, and more, as she attempts to govern the State of Israel. As Dr. Scham said, “She seems very likable and capable. She’s not Ben-Gurion and Shimon Peres, no matter what you make of him, or Sharon. She made it with her competence.”
That leaves Israelis and their supporters with an open-ended question: Is competence enough?
The Livni File
Born: Aug. 7, 1958 (Tel Aviv)
Family: Married, two children
Foreign Languages: English, French
Military Service: Lieutenant
Education: L.L.B., Bar Ilan University
Mossad: 1980-1984
Practicing Attorney: 1984-1996
Government Companies Authority: 1996-1999, General Manager (in charge of privatization of government companies and monopolies)
Knesset: June 6, 1999 — present (Likud, Kadima)
Ministries Headed: Regional Cooperation; Agricultural and Rural Development; Immigration and Absorption; Housing and Construction; Justice; Foreign Affairs
Female Factor
Tzippy Livni is poised to become Israel’s prime minister at a time of unprecedented gains for women in the Jewish state’s governmental apparatus.
The Tel Aviv native will become Israel’s second female prime minister, following Golda Meir (1970-1974). Among those with whom she will work are Dalia Itzik, the first female speaker of the Knesset, and Colette Avital, the body’s deputy speaker. Also, Yuli Tamir is minister of education.
Meanwhile, Dorit Beinisch, the first female president of Israel’s Supreme Court, will keep a close eye on the legality of the actions of Mrs. Livni and her colleagues.
“This is probably the only country in the world where all three branches of government are headed by a woman,” noted Paul Scham, executive director at the University of Maryland’s Gildenhorn Institute for Israel Studies.
What If Livni Fails?
If Kadima Party leader Tzippy Livni cannot form a governing coalition by early November, according to Israel’s “Basic Law: The Government,” President Shimon Peres must call for new national elections to be held within three months.
Then, the head of the party receiving the most votes in that balloting must form his or her own coalition within 42 days. Polls presently put the Likud comfortably ahead, which means that its leader, Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, would return to the job he held from 1996 to 1999.
Until a new government is formed, Ehud Olmert remains “outgoing prime minister” — meaning he potentially could hold the title until mid-March 2009.
By the way, if the winner of the next election cannot form a government, the election cycle starts anew. And yes, Mr. Olmert remains at the helm (assuming he is not indicted on corruption charges, which police have recommended to the Attorney General Menachem Mazuz).