Op/Ed
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October 3, 2008
Livni’s Challenges
Dr. Robert O. Freedman
Special to the Jewish Times
As Israeli Prime Minister Designate Tzippy Livni seeks to establish a governing coalition, numerous challenges, both internal and external await her.
If she can form a government and it lasts until the scheduled elections in 2010, stability will return to Israeli politics after a long period of uncertainty caused by the many corruption allegations against Ehud Olmert.
Then Livni can work on Israel’s numerous challenges. They include: the growing violence by Israeli West Bank settlers; the threat from Gaza; Hezbollah’s growing power in Lebanon; the possibility of peace with Syria; and the growing threat from Iran’s accelerating nuclear weapons program.
If Livni fails to put together a ruling coalition, new elections will likely come in March 2009, bringing continued political instability and festering problems.
Coalition Challenges:
Under Israeli law, Livni has 42 days to forge a coalition of at least 61 of Israel’s 120 Knesset members (MKs).
Her first goal is to restore the existing coalition of Kadima (29), Labor (19), Shas (12) and the fractured Pensioners Party (7). This will give her 67 MKs.
Yet, given her very narrow victory in Kadima’s recent primary (by 431 votes), some party enemies could rally around her election opponent, former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, and even return to the Likud Party, which they left with Ariel Sharon in 2005 to form Kadima.
If she can overcome such defections, then she must win over the Ehud Barak-led Labor Party. His demands reflect both personal and Labor priorities.
A past prime minister (1991-2001), Barak again wants the top job. He must judge whether remaining in the coalition will help him reach this goal. If he will not join Livni’s government, new elections will come. Yet, given Labor’s low standing in the polls (14 projected seats versus 29 for Likud and 25 for Kadima) it makes sense for him to postpone the elections for now. He may believe he can do this by being given a major foreign policy-making role, something denied under Olmert.
In addition, the Labor Party wants him to champion the removal of Justice Minister Daniel Friedman, the Olmert crony who has sought to seriously weaken the Israeli Supreme Court. The Court, generally a champion of human rights, is supported by the Labor Party.
With Labor in, Livni’s next challenge is Shas, the Sephardi Ultra-Orthodox party. Drawing much of its support from non-Orthodox Sephardi Israelis, its three major demands will pose a major test of Livni’s political skills.
Foremost, Shas wants to restore the cuts in family allowances enacted when Likud was in power. Second, it insists on a united Jerusalem and said it would leave any government if it discusses dividing the city. Third, in a new demand, it has called for government assistance to young couples seeking to buy homes.
It is possible that, by concessions on the monetary demands, she gets Shas to finesse its demands on Jerusalem, at least for now, because by delivering major economic gains to constituents, Shas will strengthen itself for the next elections.
The Pensioner Party, which polls give no hope for a return to the Knesset, is expected to join the coalition, giving its members more time in office.
Internal, External Challenges:
If Livni can form a governing coalition, she must make a series of critical decisions on:
West Bank Jewish settlers who have become a law unto themselves — even coming into conflict with the Israeli Army. Their illegal outposts are a major barrier to the peace process. Tied into this, Livni must tackle: the Palestinian claim to a “Right of Return” for refugees; Israeli checkpoints; the route of the Israeli security fence; water sharing; final borders (which will delineate which Jewish settlements stay in Israel); Palestinian competence to deal with terrorism; and Jerusalem.
Continuing the cease-fire in Gaza in light of Hamas’s periodic violations and its using the lull to build up forces, as well as it’s not negotiating seriously over captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
The growth of Hezbollah’s military and political power in Lebanon. The group has amassed a huge arsenal of rockets aimed at Isarel and can now veto any Lebanese government action.
Moving forward on peace talks with Syria, currently being held at a low level in Turkey. Livni must decide if the possibility of Syria breaking with Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah is worth giving up the Golan Heights.
Deciding whether to attack Iran’s nuclear installations, given the break between the U.S. and Russia over Georgia, serious U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran seem out of the question. So Livni must decide whether Israel needs to destroy the installations by itself, the U.S. appearing increasingly unwilling to do so.
So even if she can form a new government, Prime Minister designate Tzippy Livni faces major challenges. How she deals with them will go a long way to determining Kadima’s fate in the next elections. ••
Dr. Robert O. Freedman is visiting professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University. Among his publications are: “Israel In The Begin Era,” “Israel Under Rabin,” “Israel At Fifty” and most recently “Contemporary Israel” (Westview Press, 2008).