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Donald Trump
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks on judicial appointments Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2020, in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour/public domain)

By Caroline Glick | JNS

Almost all the polls say that U.S. President Donald Trump is heading toward defeat next month at the hands of his Democrat challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden. But Robert Cahaly, who heads the Trafalgar Group polling firm, disagrees. Cahaly was the only major pollster that accurately called the 2016 presidential race. In an interview with The Political Trade podcast, Cahaly said his data show Trump headed for another upset victory on Nov. 3.


Cahaly said that today, as in 2016, the disparity between his numbers and the marquis polling firms’ numbers owes to the latter’s systematic neglect of what he calls the “Shy Trump Voter Effect.”

From the time Hillary Clinton referred to Trump’s supporters as “deplorables” through today as Democrats demonize them as racists and fascists, Cahaly explains that a significant and growing segment of Trump voters will not admit their support for him. Fearing social and professional repercussions, the Shy Trump Voter lies to pollsters and anyone else who asks him what he thinks of Trump.


If Trump wins an historic level of support among American Jews, it will be a testament to the wisdom of an unprecedented percentage of American Jews. For American Jewry this year’s presidential election is without question the most critical one ever.

Over the past four years, anti-Semitism has become an undeniable and central characteristic of the Democratic Party to which the vast majority of American Jews have pledged their loyalty for the better part of the past hundred years, while anti-Semitism in the Republican Party has dropped to historic lows.

Democratic anti-Semitism has seemingly appeared out of the blue but in truth, the party has been on a largely one-lane road to radicalization for the past 50 years. It’s just that the path turned into a highway over the past four years with the rise of open anti-Semites like Rashida Tlaib, Linda Sarsour, Andre Carson, Keith Ellison and Ilhan Omar to commanding positions in the party.

Anti-Semitism runs through Democratic politics, policies and behavior across a spectrum of issues. In foreign policy, hating Israel has become the most passionate position of the progressive grassroots.

Biden announced early on that if elected, he will restore the U.S.’s commitment to the Iran nuclear deal he forged with Barack Obama. That means that a Biden administration will cancel the economic sanctions on Iran, ensuring the survival of the regime. It means a Biden administration will enable the cessation of the U.N. arms embargo enabling Iran to purchase whatever advanced weapons systems it wants. It also means a regime pledged to annihilate the largest Jewish community in the world — Israel — will have an open path to a nuclear arsenal.

Biden has agreed to restore the Palestinians to center stage. This isn’t a pro-peace position. After all, the Abraham Accords are the result of Trump marginalizing the Palestinians. The purpose of a Palestinian-centric policy is to delegitimize Israel, justify a U.S. foreign policy hostile to Israel and a domestic policy hostile to Israel’s supporters in America.

Then there is anti-Semitism itself. The good news is that like Trump, Biden can be expected to take on white supremacists. The bad news is that in stark contrast to Trump, Biden can be expected to turn a blind eye to the growing anti-Semitism in his own political camp.

Anti-Semitism of course isn’t limited to anti-Zionism. There is also traditional anti-Semitism that involves scapegoating and assaulting Jews simply for being Jews. There’s a lot of that going on in Democratic circles these days.

On Oct. 5, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo held a press conference where he directly threatened the state’s Orthodox Jewish community. In the middle of the Sukkot festival, Cuomo said, “I have to say to the Orthodox community … ‘If you’re not willing to live with these rules [of limiting participation in prayers due to the pandemic], then I’m going to close the synagogues.”

It would be one thing to single out Orthodox Jews if they were the only ones rejecting the limitations on religious gatherings. But they aren’t. Not even close.

As Daniel Greenfield reported at Frontpage online magazine, the day before Cuomo threatened the Orthodox community, thousands of Shi’ite Muslim men gathered without masks and with no social distancing in Queens to hold an Arba’een procession. Cuomo didn’t mention them. He also didn’t mention them in August when they held a Muharram procession in Manhattan, with no masks and no social distancing, even though the next day, Cuomo threatened to ban Jewish weddings.

To justify his singling out of Orthodox Jews, Cuomo held up a photograph of a massive Chasidic funeral. Cuomo failed to note the photo was of a funeral that took place in 2006.

According to media reports, Cuomo is the frontrunner to serve as attorney general in a Biden administration.

With a record like the one Cuomo has racked up in New York, and with the Democrat House majority incapable of condemning anti-Semitism when it emanates from its own members, it strains credulity to believe a Biden administration will protect the civil rights of Jews. This is especially true in the growing number of cases where the anti-Semites are either progressives or members of privileged communities within the progressive camp, and the victims are either Zionist Jews or Orthodox Jews.

A Jerusalem Post poll this week claimed that 70% of American Jews intend to vote for Biden. Twenty-five percent intend to vote for Trump. If the numbers are true, Trump is already enjoying a larger percentage of the Jewish vote than any Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan. If Cahaly’s models are as accurate in 2020 as they were in 2016, it is likely that Shy Trump Voters in the Jewish community will give Trump more Jewish votes than any Republican has received in history.

Caroline Glick is an award-winning columnist and author of “The Israeli Solution: A One-State Plan for Peace in the Middle East.” This article first appeared in Israel Hayom.

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