Elli Lieberman has an academic’s perspective on the Israel-Hamas war that illuminates its historical and political background.
Lieberman, 72, is a foreign policy and security researcher, analyst, author and lecturer. He is a professor of political science at University of Maryland, Baltimore County and also teaches at UMD College Park.
An Owings Mills resident since 1995, he teaches international relations and the Middle East, specializing in the Arab-Israeli conflict and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.
Lieberman will present a paper on Oct. 7 and the failure of deterrence at a Johns Hopkins University conference on the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on Israeli domestic politics and foreign policy.
“The theory of deterrence is ‘How do you deter other nations from doing things like attacking or crossing red lines?’” said Lieberman, who earned his PhD in political science and international relations at University of Chicago.
Of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, he said that his initial reaction was one of total surprise.
“Obviously, how could that happen? How was there such an intelligence failure? Where were the defense forces?”
As reality sank in, Lieberman, who was born in Haifa, Israel, said the tragedy fit into his area of research.
The deterrent theory originated primarily during the Cold War with nuclear deterrent. “The whole idea was how do you deter the Soviets from attacking or conquering Western Europe? And how do you use deterrence mechanisms to dissuade them from attacking you?”
That theory evolved from within superpowers to state versus state and moved to state versus terrorist organization, Lieberman said.
In simpler terms, “it’s the threat to another actor that if you do X, I will do Y and the implication is that Y is going to be so costly to the other actor that the price is going to outweigh the benefits. So therefore, an attack should not be contemplated in the first place.”
The history of Israel-Hamas interactions go back to several rounds of warfare. Since Hamas took over the Gaza Strip by force in 2006, the terrorist organization initiated several “mini wars” with Israel including in 2008 to 2009, 2012, 2014, 2018 and 2021.
Initially, Hamas shot missiles at the settlements around Gaza and eventually the range expanded. They were able to reach Tel Aviv. Israel would respond with aerial bombardments. The costs to Hamas was a destruction of infrastructure, the creation of a fence and a defensive tunnel so Hamas cannot cross into Israel.
“The question is ‘why wasn’t Israel able to get Hamas to accept the deterrence equation in which they just don’t attack Israel any longer?’ If one looks just at what Israel did, the country found itself in a comfortable position.”
Israel had strategic advantages with an anti-missile defense system — the Iron Dome — which had significantly reduced casualties from attacks. “So, there was never an incentive to do anything more than just punish them through attacking them with the air power artillery and so on.”
What happened on Oct. 7 changed the equation. “All of a sudden, Hamas attacked in a big way. And the big problem was that Israel did not have a credible threat before Oct. 7 that it was willing to go into Gaza and destroy Hamas.”
Military analysts have said there was the possibility of having about 900 Israeli soldiers killed so it was difficult to justify a ground operation into Gaza to eliminate their capabilities, Lieberman said.
In those major rounds of warfare in the years preceding Oct. 7, barely anyone died. So that was the deterrent calculus, he said.
“The picture that emerges now is the realization that Israel is having a difficult time defeating Hamas, obviously unable to fight a two-front war with Hezbollah at the same time. So, a lot of weaknesses are being revealed.”
The sentiment is that the hostages have to be brought home, he said. “I think Israel finds itself in a position where it cannot leave with an organization like Hamas next door because similar attacks could occur again and again.
“There are many more stages to this conflict, but the time clock for the hostages is running out.”
Israeli military analysts are saying that Israel can sustain and tolerate a succession of hostilities for a period of time. He said it’s not clear that Hamas is going to do that because it keeps some of the hostages as human shields.
“It’s a very difficult war and, in this regard, the United States should support Israel in its goal to basically rid the region of Hamas.”
Lieberman believes that a coalition of forces – other Middle East countries such as Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf countries, the Emirates – could come into Gaza and dismantle Hamas and take over. “They can help create a new leadership that is going to want to live in peace with Israel.”
