In classic boxing terms, Iran is on the ropes.
Key elements of Iran’s Axis of Resistance have been derailed, as Iran’s proxy forces have been crushed in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. And Iran has shown surprising vulnerability to aerial attacks as the result of pinpointed Israeli airstrikes on its air defense systems in both April and October.
According to White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Iran is at its “weakest point in decades.” Similar assessments have come from Israeli military and political leaders and from seasoned Middle East observers both within and outside the Biden administration.
Many observers see an opportunity. Others are unsure. But almost all agree that recent developments have created a window of opportunity to pursue a diplomatic or military effort to put an end to Iran’s determined pursuit of nuclear weapons.
The United States and most of the Western world have pledged never to allow the current regime in Iran to achieve nuclear capability. Iran’s current vulnerability and loss of regional support present a perfect opportunity to deliver on that pledge.
But how that gets done is unclear.
Before the Gaza war began, President Joe Biden hoped to reach a new nuclear arms deal with Iran, to replace the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action developed by the Obama administration in 2015. And even though President-elect Donald Trump jettisoned the JCPOA during his first term in 2018, he has discussed with international leaders the possibility of a bigger and tougher agreement.
But that was all before Israel exposed Iran’s profound weakness and vulnerability. First, in a somewhat restrained series of bombing missions on April 19 in response to the first wave of Iranian missiles and drones fired at Israel, the Israeli Air Force crippled Iran’s air defense system around the city of Isfahan.
Then, in a subsequent series of bombings in October — carried out in retaliation to Iran’s second wave of ballistic missiles fired at Israeli cities — the Israeli Air Force wiped out Iran’s air defense systems around Tehran and struck key elements of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, limiting Iran’s ability to produce additional ballistic missiles for at least a year.
Iran’s vulnerability to further air attacks is a given. But how that very clear threat can or should be used or pursued remains unclear.
Many of Iran’s nuclear facilities are buried deep underground. There are limited bombing options to attack them so deep below ground — even if bombers can get through Iran’s weakened air defenses. Israel’s current bombs are reportedly not powerful enough to reach Iran’s underground nuclear activity. Only the United States has bunker-buster bombs of sufficient strength to get that done. And the U.S. has not yet agreed to provide those bombs to Israel.
The window on Iran’s options is closing quickly. Trump is likely to be more forceful than Biden in any negotiation of a new nuclear deal — if one can even be negotiated. Trump is also likely to be much quicker on the trigger than Biden if Iran is not forthcoming enough in any negotiation, and postures and blusters despite its known weaknesses.
The time is ripe to maximize pressure on a weakened and vulnerable Iran.
