The latest New York Times/Siena College poll delivers a paradoxical message. Despite months of upheaval, Donald Trump’s approval rating remains fixed at 43%, with disapproval at 54% — almost unchanged since April. A presidency that polarizes nearly everyone remains strangely stable. Americans dislike what they see, but the numbers don’t move.
For Israel, the more consequential story lies in shifting American attitudes. For the first time, slightly more Americans say they sympathize with Palestinians than with Israel. That is no statistical blip. It reflects a generational realignment: Younger voters view the conflict less through 1948’s lens of survival and more through the daily images of occupation and war in Gaza.
Several dynamics explain this. A rising cohort is skeptical of nationalism and military force. Israel’s current leadership — right-wing, religiously inflected, often dismissive of liberal pluralism — alienates many Americans who expect their allies to share democratic values. And social media has transformed the narrative, spotlighting Palestinian suffering and eroding Israel’s once automatic moral capital.
Overlaying all this is Trump himself. A new Pew Research Center survey shows that nearly nine in 10 Democrats believe he has used his office improperly to enrich himself or his friends. Sixty-one percent of independents and 31% of Republicans agree. Roughly half of Americans — and nearly half of Republicans — say Trump is asserting more presidential power than his predecessors. Even many in his own party harbor unease about how far he pushes the limits of the office.
Yet those concerns coexist with admiration for his policies. Large Republican majorities say Trump has improved governance, transparency and America’s global standing. That dynamic has played out in the Middle East, where Trump has not just talked about policy, he has driven it. His Gaza peace plan, the end of hostilities, the return of hostages and a possible path forward has secured impressive Arab buy-in. Trump’s visit to the region and the hostage release have created powerful images that will reverberate politically.
For many Republicans, this will reinforce their view of Trump as a strong, unapologetic friend of Israel who delivers results. Among independents, it may lend his foreign policy an aura of effectiveness. But among younger and more liberal voters, the effect may be more ambivalent. To those voters, Trump’s embrace of Israel is polarizing. Indeed, as we have seen repeatedly, what energizes Trump’s base often hardens skepticism elsewhere. This will be even more likely among those who already see Israeli power as unchecked.
This creates a striking tension. International momentum behind the Gaza deal is accelerating just as domestic consensus about Israel is weakening. Old certainties can no longer be assumed. Support must be earned anew — not through presidential backing alone, but also through policies that recognize Palestinian aspirations, protect human rights and anchor Israel in shared democratic values.
Trump remains personally unpopular but politically durable. The electorate is unmoved on him, but increasingly unsettled on Israel. His Gaza deal may shape perceptions, but it won’t reverse the generational drift by itself. Rebuilding bipartisan support will require more. It will demand leadership, vision and honesty — in Washington and Jerusalem. ■
