By Dr. Eric R. Mandel
When Israel struck senior Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, confusion spread quickly in Washington.
Hamas is the U.S.-designated terrorist group responsible for the Oct. 7 massacre.
Yet Qatar, where those Hamas leaders have been living under official protection, is a major non-NATO ally hosting America’s largest military base in the region. President Donald Trump even called Qatar a “great ally.”
Israel’s message was clear: There is no sanctuary for the masterminds of Oct. 7, 2023.
That strike reflects a strategic transformation in Jerusalem, one with profound consequences for American policymakers.
For decades, Israel has preferred to “manage” its enemies rather than defeat them outright. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu permitted Qatari cash transfers to Hamas, believing money could buy calm in Gaza. The long-term threat was deferred, not solved.
The events of Oct. 7 ended that calculus. The slaughter of more than 1,200 people and the kidnapping of 251 others was Israel’s Sept. 11. Almost overnight — the doctrine of deterrence, of waiting to respond — was replaced with a doctrine of preemption: Strike first, strike hard and never allow an enemy bent on annihilation to entrench.
Where Hezbollah once planted outposts inside Israel’s borders near Har Dov without an immediate response, today Hezbollah is hit by Israeli weapons swiftly and often.
Where Hamas leaders once enjoyed safe havens abroad, today they are targets, even in the capital of a U.S. ally. This is not a tactical adjustment, but a doctrinal shift that will define Israeli security policy for years to come.
Two other U.S. allies, Turkey and Egypt, have warned against Israeli preemption while at the same time sheltering terrorists. Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other groups operate openly from their territory.
Ynet has reported that PIJ leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah enjoys the protection of Egyptian intelligence, as do members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
But Israel has learned the region’s unforgiving rule: Weakness invites aggression, strength earns quiet. Hamas’ attack proved that terrorists committed to Israel’s destruction cannot be contained by aid or temporary truces.
Iran is the clearest case in point. Tehran boasted of its intent to wipe Israel off the map while racing ahead with nuclear and missile development. In June, Jerusalem and Washington preemptively struck Iranian assets being readied to attack Israel.
Iran is rearming, acquiring Russian and Chinese anti-missile systems. With an unrepentant regime bent on Israel’s destruction, an Israeli airstrike is not a matter of if but when.
To Washington, preemption can appear destabilizing. But Israeli strikes on Iran, Hezbollah and in Syria have actually reduced the chance of wider war.
Qatar adds another layer of complexity. While bankrolling Hamas and spreading Islamist, anti-American propaganda through its state-run Al Jazeera news network, the emirate simultaneously hosts the most extensive U.S. military base in the Middle East.
Its dual role demands a reassessment. The United States should use its leverage to force Doha to choose between being a genuine ally or a financier of terror.
And Israel is hardly alone in acting preemptively in “friendly” territory. The United States killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan and Qassem Soleimani in Iraq without advance notice, knowing the local Islamic governments would likely tip off the targets. Israel’s logic is no different.
History shows the danger of empty threats. President Barack Obama’s unfulfilled “red line” in Syria branded the United States a paper tiger, emboldened former Syrian leader Bashar Assad and reverberated from Moscow to Beijing. By contrast, credible military force used prudently but decisively restores actual deterrence.
The United States cannot forget the lesson of 9/11. Militant Islamism is patient, transnational and deadly.
From Al-Qaeda and ISIS to Hamas and Iran’s Shi’ite proxies, these groups target both America (“the big Satan”) and Israel (“the little Satan”).
Israel’s trauma on Oct. 7 underscored the same point: Do not ignore threats, do not underestimate religiously motivated adversaries, and do not analyze the region through Western assumptions.
Preemption is not reckless; it is a matter of survival. Diplomacy is most effective when backed by a credible military threat.
Arab regimes publicly condemn Israeli strikes but privately welcome them. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan view Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood as existential threats. Iran’s and now Qatar’s humiliation is quietly celebrated across
Arab capitals.
Yet Arab and Muslim leaders fear an Israel that is growing too powerful or unpredictable. For years, they relied on Jerusalem to quietly contain Iran. Now, with Israel projecting strength openly, they must recalibrate.
With America and Israel already decreasing Iran’s capacity, they need Israel less in the short term. That is where U.S. leadership becomes indispensable, reassuring Arab allies while coordinating with Israel.
The American message to its Arab allies should be clear: Iran’s revolutionary and hegemonic ambitions remain intact; it is already planning or rebuilding its nuclear, missile, naval, air and military capabilities.
For moderate Arab states, sidelining Israel now would ultimately undermine their own long-term security interests.
So far, the Trump administration has backed Israeli preemption in Lebanon and Syria, reinforcing real deterrence and signaling shared resolve to Tehran. But the Qatar strike marks a turning point.
Washington now faces a choice: Remain blinded by Qatari money and influence, or adapt to a post–Oct. 7 Middle East that is defined by shifting alliances and new realities. That means:
• Deepening military coordination with Israel and Arab nations under CENTCOM.
• Pressuring Qatar to stop financing Hamas and broadcasting incitement via Al Jazeera.
• Guiding Israeli policy away from maximalist goals that could alienate Arab partners, such as annexing the entire West Bank.
• Leverage moderate Arab states to prepare for “the day after Hamas,” ensuring that Qatar and Turkey do not dominate the Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian arenas, while positioning the UAE and Saudi Arabia as the primary financiers and stabilizing forces.
Oct. 7 is not only Israel’s tragedy, it’s also America’s warning. The ideology that fueled Hamas is the same that drove Al-Qaeda on Sept. 11. Ignoring it risks repeating history.
Israel’s shift to preemption serves U.S. interests. A stronger, more assertive Israel eases the burden on American forces, deters aggressors and enforces a regional order where threats face real consequences.
This is not reckless or unlimited action. It is precise, tactical preemption when provoked, creating a strategic paradigm that stabilizes the region rather than repeating the failed pattern of waiting until it’s too late.
The lesson is clear: In the Middle East, waiting invites disaster. Diplomacy is strongest when backed by credible, preemptive military power.
Dr. Eric R. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report. He briefs members of Congress, their foreign policy teams and the U.S. State Department on Middle East security and strategy.
